Roy Amara, the American futurologist, once remarked that we tend to overestimate the effect of technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run—a sentiment that resonates deeply in today's AI landscape.
The AI bubble appears poised to burst, or so the sentiment suggests. Headlines capture the evolving narrative:
Artificial Intelligence—The Revolution Hasn’t Happened Yet (Harvard Data Science Review, June 2, 2019)
The Science that Built the AI Revolution (The Economist, April 3, 2024)
The AI Revolution Is Already Losing Steam (WSJ, May 31, 2024)
What Happened to the Artificial-Intelligence Revolution? (The Economist, July 2, 2024)
These headlines reflect a shift in perception among investors and innovators alike. Ed Zitrzon of EZPR and Adam Conovor, a WGA board member, echo the souring shift in conversation:
The reality is that current AI products, like LLMs, fall short of the hype. They function as sophisticated word calculators, providing boilerplate responses rather than transformative capabilities. The gap between promise and reality has become glaringly apparent.
In Ethan Mollick’s discussion of the “Wait Equation” in January of this year, he suggested that delaying AI projects might yield significant future dividends because the technology was advancing so rapidly. However, recent developments paint a slower picture. OpenAI's plans for a next-generation model, initially slated for June 2024, now face delays with rumors swirling around a potential 2025 release. Aside from some new demos, innovations in generative AI have been lackluster for most of 2024, dampening initial hopes.
Yet, this slowdown doesn’t signify the end of the AI revolution. Progress made through 2023 remains substantial and foundational. Instead, the slowdow is a signal for the educated stakeholders to pivot from waiting to action.
For those considering AI for the long run, the time is ripe:
Develop thoughtful internal AI guidelines to bolster institutional development.
Begin the habit of regularly sharing the best of what you’ve learned with your partners.
Prepare to follow and advise on emerging legal and regulatory frameworks.
Prepare to lead through the next sprint of advancements by seeking a fundamental grounding and staying informed.
Embrace the current state of AI with clarity and strategic foresight, and individuals and organizations can position themselves now to thrive in the long run.