Reading Jordan Furlong on AI
Shout-out to Jordan Furlong's excellent Substack on a better legal system.
Today, thanks to Keith Heddle (Mackrell International Managing Director) for introducing Jordan Furlong’s Substack about a better legal system. Furlong has some great writing going back a very long time, but his recent pieces on AI stand out (at least to me).
Here are some quick notes from one of Furlong’s recent articles: Leading your law firm into the Gen AI Era.
Time Charge Efforts Will Be Automated
“Over the next few years, the amount of time and effort required to perform basic and even intermediate legal tasks is going to crash.”
Legal Work Automation Impact: About 20% of legal work tasks could be automated using Generative AI.
Associate Vulnerability: Associate work is more susceptible to automation than partner work.
The Conservative Forecasted Scenario (by 2025):
Partner billable hours might decrease by 5%
Non-partner hours might decrease by 20%
13% revenue drop; 11% profit decrease on sample commercial matters
The Dramatic Forecasted Scenario (by 2025):
Partner hours down 20%
Non-partner hours down 40%
Revenue could plummet by 30%; profits down by 28%
Suggested Firm Culture Reform: Reform Pricing
“Move fast to implement project and client pricing.… Start now to develop pricing structures based on individual matters (an insolvency, an injury claim, a trademark defence, a shareholder dispute) — or, for particularly reliable and high-volume clients, a structure that covers all work of a certain type on a quarterly or annual basis, in each case with options, off-ramps, and trapdoors.”
Suggested Firm Culture Reform: Rethink Associates and Partners
“Prepare to hire fewer associates and to rethink partnership.… count on at least 15% to 20% fewer hours for associates in a couple of years’ time, and hire (or don’t hire) accordingly … and get ready to restructure your workforce into “core” and “ancillary” categories.”
Suggested Firm Culture Reform: Rethink the Future of Leadership
“Establish a fresh approach to developing future law firm leaders.… starting with a recognition that early-stage lawyers on the leadership track will no longer be revenue generators the way they once were.”